Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x551d…9326 sports 322 markets active 3d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,648 (+4%) realized +$5,588 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%131W / 142L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1,668est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$11,245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$982
30 days+$8,114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$3,523
other 12% +$819
crypto 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -30.9% -37.5% 36% 36% -9.1%
≤30d 71 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 45% +12.5%
≤90d 273 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 48% -6.4%
all 273 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 48% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 48% -6.4%
10% -25.9% 46% -15.4%
15% -33.0% 43% -23.6%
20% -39.6% 36% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$691) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$414 vs −$352 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$11,245
Realized+$5,588
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses131 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,668
Open positions49
Markets (closed)273 / 322
History coverage64d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $924 $862 −$62 (-7%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $693 $819 +$126 (+18%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $550 $593 +$43 (+8%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $532 $574 +$42 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $449 $483 +$34 (+7%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $451 $455 +$4 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $352 $449 +$96 (+27%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $364 $369 +$5 (+1%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $378 $361 −$17 (-4%)
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 76¢ $200 $339 +$139 (+70%)
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $150 $315 +$165 (+110%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $294 $285 −$9 (-3%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $193 $281 +$88 (+46%)
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 63¢ $300 $278 −$22 (-7%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $293 $273 −$20 (-7%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 37¢ $300 $248 −$52 (-17%)
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 60¢ $146 $225 +$79 (+54%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 79¢ $221 $213 −$8 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $196 $213 +$17 (+8%)
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 50¢ $250 $206 −$44 (-18%)
Will Pau Cubarsí score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $160 $197 +$37 (+23%)
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 52¢ $264 $195 −$69 (-26%)
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 65¢ $200 $172 −$28 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $699 +$750 +107%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $509 −$500 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $795 +$414 +52%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 13 $299 −$299 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 13 $295 −$295 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 13 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $556 −$113 -20%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $238 +$73 +31%
Struff vs. Bublik: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $289 +$261 +91%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $535 −$248 -46%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $299 +$237 +79%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $256 +$975 +381%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $466 −$25 -5%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $514 −$500 -97%
Chisinau: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Alex Martinez May 27 $707 +$323 +46%
Little Rock: Blake Ellis vs Tyler Zink May 27 $405 +$239 +59%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Paul/Willis vs Etcheverry/Carabelli May 26 $153 +$33 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen May 25 $202 +$120 +59%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Dayana Yastremska May 25 $557 +$441 +79%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $796 −$796 -100%
World Championships: Latvia vs. USA May 23 $647 +$2,829 +437%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $60 −$58 -97%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $120 −$117 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 May 23 $123 +$433 +353%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 23 $1,002 +$828 +83%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $685 +$868 +127%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 May 23 $1,792 +$936 +52%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $108 −$105 -97%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $88 −$86 -97%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Felix Gill vs Kyrian Jacquet May 22 $425 +$319 +75%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $192 −$187 -98%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $651 −$615 -94%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Luka Pavlovic May 22 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
World Championships: Canada vs. Norway May 22 $331 +$313 +94%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $383 3d
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $305 3d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 52¢ $457 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $1,449 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $699 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 40¢ $509 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut SELL Raphael Collignon 100¢ $1,209 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 65¢ $795 3d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $198 3d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 3d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $299 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $371 3d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $98 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $245 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $161 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $281 3d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $440 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $454 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $454 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $556 3d
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $222 6d
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 6d
Will Lisandro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $91 6d
Will Alexis Mac Allister score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 6d
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $160 6d
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $266 6d
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 6d
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $253 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,244.95 · official $11,245.72 (match) · 613 history records