Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x551c…fe91 sports 1081 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$135,812 (+63%) realized +$10,159 · open −$4,195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%526W / 815L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day140.5pace
Fees−$3,087est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,070now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18,904
7 days−$15,724
14 days−$4,331
30 days+$10,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$27,266
other 19% +$5,247
crypto 1% −$1,323
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 691 -42.8% -48.2% 25% 22% -21.6%
≤30d 1341 -10.5% -19.1% 39% 34% -5.0%
≤90d 1341 -10.5% -19.1% 39% 34% -5.0%
all 1341 -10.5% -19.1% 39% 34% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 34% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 29% -14.1%
15% -33.9% 23% -22.4%
20% -40.4% 18% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$67 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$3,070
Realized+$10,159
Unrealized−$4,195
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses526 / 815
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3,087
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1341 / 1081
History coverage21d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day140.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1341 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 82¢ 100¢ $2,511 $3,048 +$537 (+21%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Under 45¢ 30¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Under 62¢ 49¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 63¢ 0¢ $2,834 $2 −$2,832 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1,325 $2 −$1,323 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Over 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 31¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+223%)
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 51¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+96%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Houston Astros 26¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+285%)
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-05? No 61¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+64%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 50¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 Under 71¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 33¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5 Under 31¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Cavaliers 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 52¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5 Under 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Seattle Mariners 59¢ 0¢ $224 $0 −$224 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Under 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-4.5) Connecticut Huskies 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Under 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -102%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -102%
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -107%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers: O/U 241.5 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $6 −$5 -80%
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $8 −$7 -93%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -102%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-02-18? Jun 14 $0 −$15 -4702%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-7.5) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -101%
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5) Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Pacers vs. Hawks: O/U 248.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Predators vs. Sharks Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 14 $3 −$6 -175%
Minnesota United FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
SC Braga vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $7 −$9 -124%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Finland vs. Switzerland Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-12? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 14 $25 −$27 -106%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-05? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Stars vs. Blues Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -102%
West Ham United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 24m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 24m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 40¢ $8 24m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 24m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $273 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 81¢ $82 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 97¢ $23 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 87¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 87¢ $576 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 67¢ $70 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $213 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $8 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 15¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 42¢ $6 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 16¢ $3 1h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 30¢ $2 1h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 25¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $9 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $2,413 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $15 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $15 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $19 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,280 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $249 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $361 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $41 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $1,933 1h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 25¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,069.92 · official $3,066.60 (match) · 3500 history records