Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x551b…e339 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 277d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL −$1,261 (-19%) realized −$1,270 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$572
other 42% +$119
politics 8% −$500
crypto 2% −$127
finance 2% −$110
economics 1% −$31
tech 0% −$15
weather 0% +$16
world 0% −$10
culture 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -48.7% -53.6% 36% 36% +7.7%
≤30d 13 +5.3% -4.8% 38% 38% +23.6%
≤90d 13 +5.3% -4.8% 38% 38% +23.6%
all 71 +33.5% +20.8% 32% 32% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.8% 32% -26.7%
10% +9.2% 31% -33.7%
15% -1.3% 27% -40.1%
20% -11.0% 21% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$73 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$1,270
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)71 / 76
History coverage277d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Yes 24¢ 62¢ $10 $26 +$16 (+158%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $72 +$34 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $57 +$15 +26%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $80 +$16 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$70 +704%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $1 +$9 +850%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 08 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Feb 07 $300 −$300 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5 Feb 06 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 Feb 05 $100 +$122 +122%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 04 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Feb 04 $4 +$6 +141%
76ers vs. Warriors Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? Feb 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annua Feb 02 $1 +$31 +3122%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $800 +$465 +58%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $300 +$105 +35%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Warriors Jan 31 $50 +$22 +43%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Jan 31 $200 +$234 +117%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jan 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jan 30 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 30 $350 −$350 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Kai Thompson vs Zangar Nurlanuly Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 27 $100 +$163 +163%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2PM ET Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $106 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $72 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $57 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 5¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 11h
United States vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 1¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 1¢ $10 4d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $80 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 17d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $80 17d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL No 6¢ $10 121d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $80 131d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar BUY Yes 17¢ $300 132d
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 133d
1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $500 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $20 133d
Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $222 135d
Grêmio FBPA vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $100 135d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY Yes 34¢ $450 135d
76ers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 33¢ $10 136d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY Yes 13¢ $50 136d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.44 · official $51.44 (match) · 229 history records