Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x5519…7040 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$249 (+92%) realized +$250 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +115% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +95% what you keep after slip
Net edge+95%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$32
world 22% +$219
sports 7% +$9
politics 4% −$1
economics 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+94.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +67.0% +51.1% 100% 100% +51.1%
≤30d 3 +67.0% +51.1% 100% 100% +51.1%
≤90d 3 +67.0% +51.1% 100% 100% +51.1%
all 10 +115.4% +94.9% 60% 60% +93.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +94.9% 60% +93.5%
10% +76.2% 40% +75.0%
15% +59.2% 40% +58.1%
20% +43.6% 30% +42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +115% · $-wt +114% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$12 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.01 per $1 lost it wins $6.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$250
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage151d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $10 +$13 +130%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +56%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 05 $20 +$259 +1296%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 23 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo record the most gold medals at the 2026 Feb 23 $100 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 103d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 22¢ $20 114d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 114d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $10 114d
Will Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo record the most gold medals at the 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $100 135d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 141d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 69¢ $20 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.99 · official $98.99 (match) · 17 history records