Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x5519…4eeb crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate100%57W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 57 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 2% -9.4%
all 57 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses57 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage82d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 07 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? May 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 01 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $134 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $133 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $133 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $132 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $140 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $140 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $139 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $139 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $139 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $139 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $139 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $138 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $138 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $138 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $138 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $138 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $138 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $138 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $137 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $137 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $137 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $137 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $137 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $137 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $136 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $136 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $137 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.21 · official $140.21 (match) · 116 history records