Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x5518…38a0 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$21 (+7%) realized +$7 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$76
politics 10% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +56.7% +41.7% 100% 100% +40.4%
≤30d 2 +56.7% +41.7% 100% 100% +40.4%
≤90d 2 +56.7% +41.7% 100% 100% +40.4%
all 2 +56.7% +41.7% 100% 100% +40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.7% 100% +40.4%
10% +28.2% 100% +27.0%
15% +15.8% 50% +14.7%
20% +4.4% 50% +3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage8d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 60¢ 100¢ $53 $89 +$36 (+67%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Vitality 72¢ 82¢ $60 $68 +$9 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 60¢ $63 $53 −$10 (-16%)
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $29 $9 −$20 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $40 +$14 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $35 +$28 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $60 19m
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $64 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $40 2d
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.30 · official $219.30 (match) · 8 history records