Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5518…5451 crypto 1640 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$453 (-2%) realized −$453 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate84%1378W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day62.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$69
14 days−$81
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -0.1% -9.6% 74% 37% -10.5%
≤30d 1481 -0.1% -9.6% 84% 41% -9.6%
≤90d 1639 -0.0% -9.6% 84% 42% -9.6%
all 1639 -0.0% -9.6% 84% 42% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 42% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 12% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$453
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1378 / 261
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1639 / 1640
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day62.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1639 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $39 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $39 +$8 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $38 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $39 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $39 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $39 +$10 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $24 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $38 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $38 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$6 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$23 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$19 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$9 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$4 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $39 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $38 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $13 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $26 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $14 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $24 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $39 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $24 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $38 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $33 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $33 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $39 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $24 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records