Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5516…f7f9 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,879 (+66%) realized +$21,892 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%38W / 23L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$512per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$45
14 days−$283
30 days+$22,028
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$23,448
crypto 26% −$1,300
politics 10% −$83
other 3% −$409
sports 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.5% -2.7% 75% 62% -20.7%
≤30d 37 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 46% +61.8%
≤90d 61 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 41% +50.9%
all 61 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 41% +50.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 41% +50.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 28% +36.5%
15% -30.4% 16% +23.3%
20% -37.2% 13% +11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +66% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$635 vs −$111 · ×5.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.89 per $1 lost it wins $9.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$21,892
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses38 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)61 / 65
History coverage84d
Avg bet$512
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Daryl Parks win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes 23¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+174%)
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes 18¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-86%)
Will Michael Foust win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $117 −$65 -56%
ITF Tarvisio: Gabriela Ce vs Pia Lovric Jun 24 $7 +$3 +42%
ITF Galati: Teodora Miron vs Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni Jun 24 $11 +$2 +23%
ITF Galati: Alexia Iulia Marginean vs Allegra Korpanec Davies Jun 24 $10 +$4 +34%
ITF Kamen: Louis Wessels vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Jun 24 $10 +$7 +65%
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon Jun 24 $11 +$5 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $195 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $1,070 +$7 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $396 −$392 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$27 +213%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $882 +$141 +16%
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $67 $0 +0%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 04 $42 +$14 +33%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $14,190 +$15,874 +112%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $107 +$18 +17%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $82 +$6 +7%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $199 +$161 +81%
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Jun 04 $310 +$381 +123%
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 04 $173 +$18 +10%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $207 +$140 +68%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $219 −$85 -39%
Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 03 $5,362 +$7,078 +132%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 01 $126 −$125 -99%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 27 $186 −$69 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 27 $1,601 −$525 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 27 $234 −$207 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $92 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $699 −$406 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $999 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $334 +$66 +20%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $3,091 +$71 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $314 +$17 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $349 −$183 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 14? May 13 $104 −$9 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $102 +$9 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $128 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 12 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $347 −$27 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $22 +$8 +34%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2 May 12 $234 −$233 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 May 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 42¢ $52 1h
ITF Tarvisio: Gabriela Ce vs Pia Lovric BUY Gabriela Ce 70¢ $7 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 86¢ $117 6h
ITF Galati: Alexia Iulia Marginean vs Allegra Korpanec Davies BUY Allegra Korpanec Davies 74¢ $10 8h
ITF Galati: Teodora Miron vs Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni BUY Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni 81¢ $11 8h
ITF Kamen: Louis Wessels vs Leonid Sheyngezikht BUY Louis Wessels 60¢ $10 8h
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon BUY Eva Marie Desvignes 66¢ $11 8h
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY Yes $5 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY Yes $1 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $155 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $41 29h
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $6 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $361 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $40 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 12d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 12d
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 16d
Will Daryl Parks win the Tallahassee mayoral election? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 67¢ $67 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $64 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $193 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $200 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $200 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $200 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $278 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.28 · official $107.28 (match) · 709 history records