Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5515…fd19 crypto 790 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$617 (-15%) realized −$617 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%332W / 458L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$23
14 days−$51
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$619
other 3% −$55
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -34.2% -40.5% 55% 55% -40.8%
≤30d 60 -26.4% -33.4% 57% 45% -29.9%
≤90d 781 -19.2% -26.9% 42% 32% -26.5%
all 790 -19.0% -26.7% 42% 32% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 32% -24.7%
10% -33.7% 27% -31.9%
15% -40.1% 23% -38.5%
20% -46.0% 18% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$617
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses332 / 458
Open positions0
Markets (closed)790 / 790
History coverage104d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 790 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $9 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $17 −$9 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $18 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 08 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $20 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 50m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 25h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2304 history records