Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5511…19c5 world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 52L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$18
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$34
other 17% +$1
politics 15% $0
sports 6% −$7
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$6
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 26 +7.7% -2.6% 38% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 74 +11.5% +0.9% 39% 7% -8.7%
all 87 +5.8% -4.2% 40% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 6% -9.0%
10% -13.4% 5% -17.7%
15% -21.8% 5% -25.7%
20% -29.4% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage541d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $168 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $240 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $224 −$2 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $72 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $102 −$15 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $230 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $73 −$2 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $4 $0 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $76 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $163 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $245 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $103 +$9 +9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $79 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $79 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $78 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $80 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $54 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $28 +$23 +83%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $44 +$6 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $81 +$7 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $40 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $40 −$3 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $31 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $35 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $71 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $60 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $33 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $10 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $50 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $14 33h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $49 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $23 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $23 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $56 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $80 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $25 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $47 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $59 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $13 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.99 · official $71.38 (match) · 419 history records