Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
55 0x550e…b4e7 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$228 (+6%) realized +$230 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$184
14 days+$215
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$8
sports 23% +$219
world 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -39.3% -45.1% 48% 32% -3.8%
≤30d 28 -40.2% -45.9% 46% 32% -3.4%
≤90d 28 -40.2% -45.9% 46% 32% -3.4%
all 28 -40.2% -45.9% 46% 32% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.9% 32% -3.4%
10% -51.1% 18% -12.7%
15% -55.8% 18% -21.1%
20% -60.1% 11% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$25 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$230
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 33
History coverage8d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 90¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $212 +$93 +44%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $303 +$158 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$36 +12%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $121 +$26 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $412 +$61 +15%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $310 +$13 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $300 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $301 +$15 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $231 +$51 +22%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$80 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $301 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-2 BUY 64¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 45¢ $6 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY 31¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $1 15h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $461 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 18h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes $0 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 39h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes $1 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $110 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 81¢ $111 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.61 · official $413.61 · 59 history records