Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
55 0x550b…fdff sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-5%) realized −$72 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$104
crypto 16% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.1% -7.6% 67% 67% +9.6%
≤30d 3 +2.1% -7.6% 67% 67% +9.6%
≤90d 3 +2.1% -7.6% 67% 67% +9.6%
all 3 +2.1% -7.6% 67% 67% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 67% +9.6%
10% -16.5% 67% -0.9%
15% -24.5% 67% -10.4%
20% -31.9% 67% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$29 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 78¢ $54 $112 +$58 (+107%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $90 +$48 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$10 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 23m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $138 28m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $22 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $42 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $35 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.65 · official $206.65 (match) · 10 history records