Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
55 0x5509…e5ba politics 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,285 (-1%) realized −$1,287 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%22W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$834per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$12
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$57
other 29% −$286
sports 15% −$916
culture 3% −$3
world 3% −$2
economics 2% −$13
crypto 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -17.6% -25.4% 5% 0% -12.1%
all 121 -3.5% -12.7% 18% 10% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 10% -10.7%
10% -21.1% 10% -19.2%
15% -28.7% 7% -27.0%
20% -35.7% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,083) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$600
Realized−$1,287
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage143d
Avg bet$834
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $599 $600 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $291 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $222 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,288 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $639 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,203 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,238 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $893 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,008 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,026 −$3 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,877 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $481 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,770 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $667 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $1,837 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 04 $672 +$1 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $356 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,706 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,839 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $1,718 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,736 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 13 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $306 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $225 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $291 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $291 3h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $222 24h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $222 25h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $218 27h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $219 29h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $385 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $386 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $599 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $638 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $639 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $853 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $854 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $883 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $884 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,031 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,033 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $892 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $893 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $932 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $934 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $792 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $793 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $863 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $865 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $842 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $843 18d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $992 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.43 · official $600.43 (match) · 375 history records