Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:29:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
55 0x5507…e0e0 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$98
14 days−$98
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$10
sports 37% +$17
world 3% −$10
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -39.1% -44.9% 27% 27% -62.5%
≤30d 31 -33.7% -40.0% 29% 29% -57.5%
≤90d 64 +6.0% -4.1% 42% 41% -12.8%
all 64 +6.0% -4.1% 42% 41% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 41% -12.8%
10% -13.3% 41% -21.1%
15% -21.6% 41% -28.7%
20% -29.3% 31% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage80d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+127%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$4 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $5 +$7 +129%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $5 +$6 +114%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $4 $0 +7%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $10 +$4 +41%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $5 +$15 +291%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 3 - 1 Nottingham Forest FC? May 04 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $9 +$13 +145%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $10 +$5 +48%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $5 +$11 +206%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $6 +$17 +276%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $3 +$9 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $3 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 22¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $8 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 14d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $5 18d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 65¢ $5 35d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 21¢ $5 36d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $11 38d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 46¢ $5 38d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 38d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.55 · official $15.55 (match) · 141 history records