Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5505…aa44 sports 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3351 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$796 (-2%) realized −$2,070 · open +$1,274
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%28W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day3351.0pace
Fees−$537est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$34,254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$580
other 19% −$253
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3351 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -8.7% -17.4% 21% 20% -65.0%
≤30d 133 -8.7% -17.4% 21% 20% -65.0%
≤90d 133 -8.7% -17.4% 21% 20% -65.0%
all 133 -8.7% -17.4% 21% 20% -65.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3351.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 20% -65.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 20% -68.3%
15% -32.5% 20% -71.4%
20% -39.1% 20% -74.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$66 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$34,254
Realized−$2,070
Unrealized+$1,274
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses28 / 105
Est. fees paid−$537
Open positions174
Markets (closed)133 / 245
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$143
Trades / day3351.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 174 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 26¢ 62¢ $880 $2,120 +$1,240 (+141%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 35¢ 66¢ $567 $1,077 +$510 (+90%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 30¢ $965 $985 +$20 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $983 $966 −$16 (-2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $974 $963 −$12 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $969 $957 −$12 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $961 $950 −$10 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $971 $949 −$22 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $975 $948 −$27 (-3%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $950 $933 −$17 (-2%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 36¢ 36¢ $913 $903 −$10 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 44¢ 42¢ $957 $903 −$54 (-6%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $822 $831 +$9 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $796 $787 −$9 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner EDward Gaming 29¢ 100¢ $210 $720 +$510 (+243%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 31¢ 32¢ $602 $603 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Haiti 27¢ 26¢ $585 $575 −$10 (-2%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 42¢ 42¢ $573 $566 −$7 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 56¢ $419 $538 +$119 (+28%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 48¢ 48¢ $526 $532 +$5 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $534 $522 −$12 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Arthur Fery 42¢ 40¢ $537 $516 −$21 (-4%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $489 $482 −$7 (-1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 49¢ 27¢ $822 $458 −$365 (-44%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 30¢ 32¢ $436 $451 +$15 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $99 +$124 +125%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $67 −$67 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 19 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $81 −$81 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Valencia vs. Barcelona: O/U 175.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $16 0m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 31¢ $2 0m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 40¢ $49 0m
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 0m
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $34 0m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $52 0m
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $10 1m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1m
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 31¢ $52 1m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 1m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $51 1m
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 18¢ $2 1m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 26¢ $35 1m
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY WW Team 50¢ $51 1m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $52 1m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $52 2m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 16¢ $17 2m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $51 2m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $51 2m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $9 2m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $49 2m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $52 2m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $17 3m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $28 3m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $1 3m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $5 4m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 4m
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 42¢ $11 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,253.70 · official $33,904.29 · 3500 history records