Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x5503…4ec2
sports · 10 markets active 1h ago
6.0score
+$51 +80%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$52 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage113d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 3 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs TheMongolz 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Aurora Gaming 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$6 +111%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 02 $16 +$66 +402%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $5 +$3 +56%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Play Feb 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% −$13
politics 25% +$66
other 24% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 50% -3.2%
≤30d 2 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 50% -3.2%
≤90d 3 +138.0% +115.3% 67% 67% +217.5%
all 7 +24.3% +12.4% 43% 43% +87.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 43% +87.9%
10% +1.7% 43% +69.9%
15% -8.1% 43% +53.5%
20% -17.2% 43% +38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.25 · official $14.27 (match) · 13 history records