Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
55 0x5501…fe9a sports 349 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,674 (-20%) realized −$9,700 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%126W / 220L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$646est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days−$35
14 days−$115
30 days−$22,059
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$9,966
crypto 5% +$270
other 1% −$213
world 0% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +4.5% -5.4% 50% 47% -10.6%
≤30d 237 -64.2% -67.6% 16% 16% -72.0%
≤90d 335 -16.8% -24.8% 35% 35% -35.5%
all 346 -13.5% -21.7% 36% 36% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 36% -28.2%
10% -29.2% 36% -35.1%
15% -36.0% 35% -41.4%
20% -42.3% 32% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +26% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$131 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$9,700
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses126 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$646
Open positions3
Markets (closed)346 / 349
History coverage107d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 35¢ 44¢ $64 $81 +$17 (+27%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 56¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+80%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ 100¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+125%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $306 +$244 +80%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $71 −$69 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$18 +70%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $22 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $95 −$91 -96%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $269 −$266 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $74 +$99 +133%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $372 +$307 +82%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $198 +$269 +136%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $69 −$67 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $94 −$93 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$38 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$26 +89%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $60 +$41 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $39 +$61 +156%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $67 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $29 +$38 +130%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $68 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $62 −$61 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $36 +$27 +74%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$167 -82%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $98 +$105 +106%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $59 +$38 +65%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $13 +$47 +360%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $146 −$143 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$18 -96%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $6 +$14 +246%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $49 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $73 +$84 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$22 +44%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $18 +$32 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $52 +$36 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $49 +$60 +123%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $152 +$92 +60%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $9 −$9 -95%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs Jun 03 $104 −$102 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $65 27m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $964 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $549 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $550 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $306 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $306 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $142 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Sashi Esport 33¢ $71 3h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 46¢ $48 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $44 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 14h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL SaD Esports 100¢ $29 14h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY SaD Esports 75¢ $22 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 32¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $95 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $269 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $173 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $74 15h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $152 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $679 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 54¢ $372 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 87¢ $467 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 36¢ $198 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 8¢ $69 22h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 34¢ $19 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $94 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $64 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.86 · official $106.15 · 827 history records