Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:05:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
55 0x5500…b4f6 weather 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$400 (+9%) realized +$400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate75%74W / 25L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day45.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$155
14 days+$215
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +22.4% +10.7% 76% 57% -5.8%
≤30d 99 +22.3% +10.6% 75% 57% -4.9%
≤90d 99 +22.3% +10.6% 75% 57% -4.9%
all 99 +22.3% +10.6% 75% 57% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.6% 57% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.0% 41% -14.0%
15% -9.6% 28% -22.3%
20% -18.5% 18% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses74 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage12d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day45.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 28? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? Jun 27 $217 −$6 -3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 27 $276 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 28? Jun 27 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 28? Jun 27 $26 +$10 +37%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 27? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28? Jun 26 $63 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 28? Jun 26 $388 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 28? Jun 26 $197 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? Jun 26 $11 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? Jun 26 $15 +$8 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 27? Jun 26 $55 −$16 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 26 $380 −$14 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 26 $52 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 27? Jun 26 $49 +$9 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 26 $39 −$14 -34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 26 $86 +$29 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 26 $45 +$13 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 26? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 26? Jun 25 $149 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 27? Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $48 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? Jun 25 $136 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? Jun 25 $141 −$20 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? Jun 25 $80 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? Jun 25 $62 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? Jun 25 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 25 $139 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 24 $7 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 24 $19 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 26? Jun 24 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? Jun 24 $46 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $508 +$26 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 25? Jun 24 $0 +$1 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 25? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 23 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 23 $15 +$6 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +280%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 23? Jun 22 $0 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Jun 22 $12 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 24? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? Jun 22 $10 +$13 +128%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $30 −$5 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 20m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 29m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 27¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $13 30m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $34 33m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 15¢ $9 36m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 29¢ $96 36m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $3 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $3 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 31¢ $5 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 31¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $24 40m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 32¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 33¢ $9 45m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 21¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 21¢ $39 46m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL Yes 21¢ $34 47m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $22 48m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 18¢ $2 48m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 18¢ $4 48m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $51 48m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 35¢ $116 50m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? SELL Yes 31¢ $98 51m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 28? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 51m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 38¢ $8 53m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 38¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $244 54m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 28? SELL Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.03 · official $2.94 (match) · 551 history records