Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

55
0x5500…da1b
sports · 218 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$971 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$971 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$11
Realized−$971
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses78 / 138
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)216 / 218
History coverage118d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 2 History 216 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$63
14 days−$208
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Singapore leading at halftime? Yes 18¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Solana Sierra 15¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Guy Den Ouden $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Maja Chwalinska 19¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 1.5 Under 68¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bhutan leading at halftime? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Diana Shnaider 62¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Panna Udvardy 25¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Poland leading at halftime? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Anna Kalinskaya 31¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-06-07? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jazmin Ortenzi 13¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Magda Linette 23¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Mary Stoiana $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Mexico vs. Serbia: Draw at halftime? Yes 36¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $34 +$31 +91%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 +$11 +116%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $36 −$35 -98%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $10 +$4 +35%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $78 +$44 +57%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $9 −$3 -27%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $4 −$3 -73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $59 +$16 +28%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $61 −$2 -4%
Modena: Victoria Bosio vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $60 +$11 +19%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 08 $9 −$9 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $92 −$1 -1%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $6 −$5 -89%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $7 −$5 -70%
Will Kosovo vs. Andorra end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $14 −$8 -54%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $54 −$43 -80%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $147 −$22 -15%
Libema Open, Qualification: Ella Seidel vs Greet Minnen Jun 07 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $123 −$5 -4%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $33 −$33 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $21 +$12 +57%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $85 +$37 +44%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $13 −$5 -41%
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 06 $4 $0 -11%
Portugal vs. Chile: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $10 +$7 +72%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $28 −$23 -83%
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $41 +$35 +86%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -91%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 05 $10 $0 -5%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 05 $70 +$3 +4%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -91%
Singapore leading at halftime? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% −$507
other 30% −$681
finance 9% +$14
politics 3% +$112
world 2% +$40
crypto 2% +$51
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $29 1h
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 23¢ $10 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $4 6h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $4 6h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes $5 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 6h
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette SELL Magda Linette 43¢ $16 6h
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 27¢ $10 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $20 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 21h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 13¢ $9 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 27h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 14¢ $10 27h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria $1 27h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 46¢ $36 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $36 44h
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 15¢ $10 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $4 2d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Dayana Yastremska 68¢ $14 2d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 49¢ $10 2d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 25¢ $6 2d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur SELL Panna Udvardy 60¢ $119 2d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 35¢ $72 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -11.0% -19.5% 31% 31% -15.8%
≤30d 85 -20.2% -27.8% 27% 26% -27.2%
≤90d 147 -23.5% -30.8% 31% 28% -33.6%
all 216 -16.0% -24.0% 36% 30% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 30% -25.2%
10% -31.3% 27% -32.3%
15% -37.9% 22% -38.9%
20% -44.0% 17% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.88 · official $10.88 (match) · 540 history records