Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54ff…4f98 crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-13%) realized −$66 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%25W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$99
other 32% +$22
sports 5% −$4
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +20.7% +9.2% 50% 33% -10.3%
≤30d 24 +20.7% +9.2% 50% 33% -10.3%
≤90d 24 +20.7% +9.2% 50% 33% -10.3%
all 64 -10.6% -19.1% 39% 30% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 30% -28.5%
10% -26.9% 28% -35.4%
15% -33.9% 22% -41.6%
20% -40.4% 16% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses25 / 39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage145d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 50¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -48%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +24%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Feb 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 17 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 17 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Feb 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 16 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 16 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 16 $17 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 16 $18 −$10 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Feb 16 $20 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Feb 16 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 16 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 16 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 16 $2 −$1 -42%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Warriors Feb 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.06 · official $85.71 (match) · 215 history records