Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54fd…4ac3 finance 584 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,385 (+7%) realized +$12,276 · open +$1,109
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate84%484W / 93L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$5,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,452
14 days+$1,469
30 days+$1,568
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 42% +$5,128
other 40% +$3,312
sports 15% +$4,183
tech 1% +$139
world 1% +$157
culture 0% +$88
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +23.0% +11.2% 91% 55% +20.2%
≤30d 56 +2.7% -7.1% 93% 16% -3.1%
≤90d 191 +5.4% -4.6% 84% 21% -5.6%
all 577 +7.3% -2.9% 84% 36% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 36% -3.8%
10% -12.2% 23% -13.0%
15% -20.7% 14% -21.4%
20% -28.5% 10% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$146 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$5,207
Realized+$12,276
Unrealized+$1,109
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses484 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions7
Markets (closed)577 / 584
History coverage244d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 577 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day? No 82¢ 99¢ $1,932 $2,336 +$404 (+21%)
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $1,426 $1,867 +$441 (+31%)
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close on IPO day? No 69¢ 99¢ $589 $847 +$258 (+44%)
Will Bank of America fail by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $96 $103 +$7 (+7%)
Will Sinda not IPO before September 2026? No 91¢ 86¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-5%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Truist fail by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$6 -48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $432 +$98 +23%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $142 +$18 +12%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $134 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$40 +68%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 19 $1,885 +$540 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $38 +$42 +112%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c Jun 19 $223 $0 +0%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c Jun 19 $1,262 +$719 +57%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.75B and $2.0B at market c Jun 19 $175 $0 +0%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market cl Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market cl Jun 18 $208 $0 +0%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be at least $3.0B at market close on IP Jun 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? Jun 18 $459 +$5 +1%
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $354 +$4 +1%
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $268 +$3 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $136 $0 +0%
Will RH Q1 revenue be above $850M? Jun 11 $60 $0 +1%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be at least $900M at market close Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $675M and $750M at mark Jun 10 $420 −$161 -38%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close Jun 10 $980 +$7 +1%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $600M and $675M at mark Jun 10 $1,016 +$17 +2%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.25B and $2.5B at marke Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be at least $3B at market close on I Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.75B and $3B at market Jun 05 $235 $0 +0%
Will Innio's market cap be between $23B and $26B at market close on IP Jun 05 $622 +$15 +2%
Will Innio's market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IP Jun 05 $184 +$4 +2%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $19B and $22B at market close Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close Jun 05 $227 +$49 +21%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 04 $106 −$106 -99%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $2.75B and $3 Jun 04 $563 +$229 +41%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3 Jun 04 $558 +$17 +3%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $4.75B and $5 Jun 04 $750 +$1 +0%
Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $7.5B Jun 03 $206 $0 +0%
Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.0B Jun 03 $1,020 +$1 +0%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q2 Cloud and AI revenue be above $7.0B Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q2 Cloud and AI revenue be above $7.5B Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026? Jun 02 $121 +$8 +7%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026? Jun 02 $421 $0 +0%
Will Encore Medical’s market cap be between $45M and $50M at market cl Jun 02 $775 +$1 +0%
Will Encore Medical not IPO before June 2026? Jun 02 $1,074 +$2 +0%
Will Dell say "Meta" during earnings call? May 29 $43 +$2 +6%
Will Dell say "Layoff" during earnings call? May 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Dell say "Displace" or "Displacement" during earnings call? May 29 $126 +$1 +1%
Will Dollar Tree Q1 comparable store net sales growth be between 3% an May 29 $229 +$2 +1%
Will Dell say "Agentic" during earnings call? May 29 $244 +$2 +1%
Will Dell say "PowerEdge" during earnings call? May 29 $270 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sinda not IPO before September 2026? BUY No 90¢ $17 48m
Will Sinda not IPO before September 2026? BUY No 91¢ $29 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $111 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $53 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $89 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 4d
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY No 100¢ $134 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 46¢ $23 6d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c BUY No 100¢ $104 6d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c BUY No 100¢ $103 6d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY Yes 100¢ $336 7d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market cl BUY No 100¢ $50 7d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c BUY No 100¢ $120 7d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c BUY No 100¢ $170 7d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.75B and $2.0B at market c BUY No 100¢ $155 7d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market cl BUY No 100¢ $208 7d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be at least $3.0B at market close on IP BUY No 100¢ $112 7d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY Yes 99¢ $224 7d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.75B and $2.0B at market c BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY Yes 97¢ $111 7d
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? BUY No 99¢ $148 7d
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? BUY No 99¢ $311 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,206.70 · official $5,205.52 (match) · 3235 history records