Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54f9…5c3d
sports · 8 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
−$93 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$99 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1,507
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage19d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 3 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$815
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Over 39¢ 40¢ $500 $506 +$6 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 38¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions League? Yes 44¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 33¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League? Yes 16¢ $818 $0 −$818 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,014 +$853 +84%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 202 May 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio May 26 $946 −$914 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$56
other 15% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $508 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $509 1h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,867 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 13d
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 202 BUY Yes 44¢ $8 13d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio SELL Yes $0 17d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio SELL Yes $2 18d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio SELL Yes $6 18d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio SELL Yes $2 18d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes 34¢ $45 19d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes 32¢ $102 19d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes 28¢ $102 19d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes 26¢ $82 19d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes 31¢ $102 19d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes 22¢ $102 19d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes 13¢ $103 19d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes 12¢ $103 19d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes $103 19d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes $103 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-66.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -63.2% -66.7% 20% 20% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -63.2% -66.7% 20% 20% -9.7%
all 5 -63.2% -66.7% 20% 20% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.7% 20% -9.7%
10% -69.9% 20% -18.3%
15% -72.8% 20% -26.2%
20% -75.4% 20% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,506.53 · official $1,506.53 (match) · 23 history records