Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54f8…0776 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+9%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%62W / 34L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day58.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$23
other 30% +$33
sports 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -3.1% -12.3% 65% 48% -4.6%
≤30d 96 -3.1% -12.3% 65% 48% -4.6%
≤90d 96 -3.1% -12.3% 65% 48% -4.6%
all 96 -3.1% -12.3% 65% 48% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 48% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 30% -13.7%
15% -28.4% 15% -22.1%
20% -35.4% 8% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses62 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $41 +$4 +11%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$3 +63%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $43 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $43 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $77 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 88¢ $41 2h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 220 history records