Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54f7…e3b7 other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 496d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%76W / 29L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$1
other 36% +$2
sports 2% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 +0.1% -9.5% 79% 0% -9.5%
all 105 -1.8% -11.1% 72% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

496d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses76 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage496d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $1,439 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 20 $1,399 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 19? May 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 19? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $1,298 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,298 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? May 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? May 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 16? May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 11-17? May 17 $1,399 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? May 16 $1,500 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Apr 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on December 29? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Dec 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 28 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 28 $55 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Oct 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 16? Oct 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 14? Oct 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $132,000 on October 13? Oct 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 04 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $34 15d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 36d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,439 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $86 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $336 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $667 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $25 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $282 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,399 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,296 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,298 39d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,297 39d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $22 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $25 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 39d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,298 39d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $1,299 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $31 41d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $2 41d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $44 41d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $8 41d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 41d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $2 41d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $5 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 11-17? SELL No 100¢ $1,399 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $1,374 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $10 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.84 · official $56.84 (match) · 258 history records