Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54f3…b6b7 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -29.8% -36.5% 47% 47% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -29.8% -36.5% 47% 47% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -29.8% -36.5% 47% 47% -9.6%
all 15 -29.8% -36.5% 47% 47% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 47% -9.6%
10% -42.5% 47% -18.2%
15% -48.1% 27% -26.1%
20% -53.2% 20% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records