Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x54f1…45c7 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$196 (+10%) realized +$197 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$286
sports 16% −$139
crypto 6% +$57
world 2% −$43
weather 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +2.4% -7.4% 33% 33% -1.6%
≤30d 39 +2.4% -7.4% 33% 33% -1.6%
≤90d 39 +2.4% -7.4% 33% 33% -1.6%
all 39 +2.4% -7.4% 33% 33% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 33% -1.6%
10% -16.2% 33% -11.0%
15% -24.3% 31% -19.6%
20% -31.7% 26% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$27 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$197
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)39 / 45
History coverage6d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $130 $131 +$1 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 12¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$35 +342%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$41 +363%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $152 −$152 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$31 +305%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $21 +$59 +286%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 +$49 +96%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 +$73 +708%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$69 +69%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $335 +$136 +41%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 +$147 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $133 +$144 +108%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +138%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$47 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $26 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $132 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 18h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 20h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $142 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 63¢ $152 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 24h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 1¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 34h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 39h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 40h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $52 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.05 · official $190.05 (match) · 86 history records