Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x54f0…623b other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$3
politics 15% −$4
sports 9% +$11
economics 8% −$2
culture 5% −$2
tech 3% −$1
world 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 +2.8% -7.0% 11% 8% -9.5%
all 106 +2.8% -7.0% 11% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 8% -9.5%
10% -15.9% 8% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 8% -26.1%
20% -31.5% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage87d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $142 $142 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $297 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $136 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $276 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $37 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $227 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $252 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $239 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $460 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $435 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 09 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $240 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $235 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 03 $479 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $252 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $239 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $252 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $232 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $494 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $444 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $250 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $506 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $470 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $470 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $255 $0 -0%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $285 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 12 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $289 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 20h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $142 27h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 11d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $52 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 16d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 16d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 17d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 18d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 21d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 24d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 26d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $136 28d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $227 29d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $227 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.27 · official $172.27 (match) · 309 history records