Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:34:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x54f0…7725 crypto 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,671 (-28%) realized −$5,613 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%91W / 96L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,042now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,671
7 days−$5,855
14 days−$5,901
30 days−$5,740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$5,717
sports 25% −$66
crypto 20% −$416
world 3% +$363
politics 1% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.0% -36.7% 44% 22% -59.4%
≤30d 11 -17.7% -25.6% 45% 27% -53.1%
≤90d 187 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 45% -36.6%
all 187 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 45% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 45% -36.6%
10% -25.0% 41% -42.7%
15% -32.3% 36% -48.2%
20% -38.9% 30% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$88 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1,042
Realized−$5,613
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses91 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)187 / 189
History coverage69d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $1,000 $951 −$49 (-5%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 60¢ 55¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3,005 +$151 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$21 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $272 +$98 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,016 −$6,000 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$34 -66%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1,104 −$46 -4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $203 +$161 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $302 +$31 +10%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $702 +$363 +52%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $102 −$12 -12%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 +$53 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $200 +$78 +39%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $202 −$200 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $507 +$382 +75%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $61 +$44 +73%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $145 +$165 +114%
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $40 −$39 -98%
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$6 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 13 $22 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 13 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 13 $59 −$19 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 13 $140 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 13 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 13 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $3,156 52m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $62 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $3,005 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $41 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $272 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 35h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 46¢ $98 41h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5,013 5d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 96¢ $1,049 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 91¢ $1,003 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Marta Kostyuk $9 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 56¢ $101 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 17d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $333 30d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 30d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $202 30d
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $90 31d
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 32d
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $499 32d
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $203 32d
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 34d
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,041.54 · official $1,041.54 (match) · 453 history records