Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54ef…24a2
crypto · 19 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
−$119 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$119 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage124d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 1 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 22 $7 $0 -0%
Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 6.5 Mar 12 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? Mar 10 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 10 $1,247 $0 -0%
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 10 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? Mar 10 $768 −$2 -0%
Will Liberal Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th Mar 10 $712 −$1 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Mar 09 $610 +$2 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 11PM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 5AM ET Mar 01 $8 +$8 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 6PM ET Mar 01 $11 +$11 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 11PM ET Feb 27 $14 +$14 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 10AM ET Feb 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 5PM ET Feb 27 $12 +$12 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 12AM ET Feb 25 $12 +$12 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 3PM ET Feb 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$4
world 20% −$1
tech 20% $0
politics 12% −$1
economics 10% +$2
sports 2% −$147
crypto 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $6 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 16d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 33d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $7 52d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $7 52d
Canadiens vs. Senators: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 52¢ $147 93d
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $596 94d
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $597 94d
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $645 94d
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $645 94d
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $617 94d
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $617 94d
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 97¢ $729 94d
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $730 94d
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $630 94d
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $631 94d
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $130 94d
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $635 94d
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $768 94d
Will Liberal Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th SELL No 100¢ $14 94d
Will Liberal Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th SELL No 100¢ $697 94d
Will Liberal Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th BUY No 100¢ $712 94d
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 98¢ $582 96d
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $584 96d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 SELL No 99¢ $612 96d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 BUY No 99¢ $30 96d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 BUY No 99¢ $580 96d
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 11PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 18 +5.5% -4.5% 33% 28% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 28% -11.3%
10% -13.7% 28% -19.8%
15% -22.0% 28% -27.5%
20% -29.7% 28% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.95 · official $6.95 (match) · 47 history records