Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

54 0x54ee…15f8 sports 4 markets active 4h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,932 (+48%) realized +$1,497 · open +$435

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +166% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +122% what you keep after slip

Net edge+122%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$999per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$80est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$3,436now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+140.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+165.5%	+140.3%	100%	100%	+142.6%
≤30d	2	+165.5%	+140.3%	100%	100%	+142.6%
≤90d	2	+165.5%	+140.3%	100%	100%	+142.6%
all	2	+165.5%	+140.3%	100%	100%	+142.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+140.3%	100%	+142.6%
10%	+117.3%	100%	+119.4%
15%	+96.3%	100%	+98.2%
20%	+77.0%	100%	+78.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +168% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +166% · $-wt +168% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$784 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$3,436

Realized+$1,497

Unrealized+$435

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$80

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$999

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5	Over	29¢	34¢	$2,501	$2,929	+$428 (+17%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	37¢	38¢	$500	$507	+$7 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$505	+$995	+197%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$427	+$573	+134%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	37¢	$509	3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	29¢	$2,343	26h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	27¢	$0	26h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	27¢	$1	26h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	27¢	$44	26h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	26¢	$52	27h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	42¢	$427	28h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	33¢	$505	28h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	26¢	$52	29h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	26¢	$9	30h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	26¢	$51	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,436.24 · official $3,436.24 (match) · 13 history records