Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54ed…1d79 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$105 (-19%) realized −$127 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 244d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$31
crypto 34% +$43
sports 28% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -27.4% -34.3% 41% 33% -35.7%
≤30d 27 -27.4% -34.3% 41% 33% -35.7%
≤90d 27 -27.4% -34.3% 41% 33% -35.7%
all 28 -25.6% -32.7% 43% 36% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 36% -31.8%
10% -39.1% 36% -38.3%
15% -45.0% 25% -44.3%
20% -50.4% 25% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage244d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $117 $142 +$25 (+21%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$13 +240%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs FlyQuest (BO1) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Chelsea (-1.5) Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$29 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +63%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? Oct 22 $31 +$7 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $10 4h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $120 2d
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.59 · official $183.59 (match) · 70 history records