Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54ec…0d0b crypto 622 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1036 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,219 (+11%) realized +$5,219 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%318W / 722L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1036.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,634
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1036 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1040 -39.3% -45.1% 31% 27% -16.8%
≤30d 1040 -39.3% -45.1% 31% 27% -16.8%
≤90d 1040 -39.3% -45.1% 31% 27% -16.8%
all 1040 -39.3% -45.1% 31% 27% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1036.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.1% 27% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -50.4% 23% -24.8%
15% -55.2% 19% -32.0%
20% -59.5% 15% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -87% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$25 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$5,219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses318 / 722
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1040 / 622
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1036.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1040 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 81¢ 69¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 31¢ 30¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $0 +$1 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $17 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $22 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.57 · official $59.54 · 3500 history records