Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
54 0x54eb…2529 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$35
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$27
sports 26% −$11
other 16% −$5
politics 14% +$3
economics 6% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.5% -8.1% 40% 10% -8.5%
≤30d 29 +0.2% -9.3% 48% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 39 -2.4% -11.7% 41% 3% -9.3%
all 41 -2.3% -11.6% 41% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -9.4%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage94d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $194 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $145 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $243 +$14 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $302 +$7 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $165 −$6 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $120 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $184 −$3 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $74 +$10 +14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $174 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $174 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $306 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $311 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $558 +$13 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $320 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $92 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $242 +$2 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $314 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $170 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $148 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $195 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $286 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $144 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $317 −$5 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $159 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $140 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $140 −$9 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $14 −$1 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $21 $0 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $619 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,136 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $906 +$2 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $906 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $905 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $971 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $96 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $1,077 −$4 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $97 −$5 -5%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $468 −$7 -1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $1,024 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $42 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $194 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $194 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $143 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $145 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $74 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $24 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $84 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $143 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $158 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $159 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $159 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $52 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $108 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $50 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $115 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $120 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $120 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $181 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $184 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $39 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $36 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $24 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $174 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $174 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.00 · official $42.00 (match) · 204 history records