Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54eb…bd8a world 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%32W / 45L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$4
other 25% $0
politics 18% −$9
sports 9% +$24
economics 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 2% +$1
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 20% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 66 -0.8% -10.3% 36% 2% -9.9%
all 77 +0.4% -9.2% 42% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage486d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 72¢ 66¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $50 −$3 -7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 +$4 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $78 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $14 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $31 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $21 −$3 -15%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $63 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $69 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $44 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $64 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $89 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $11 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $34 $0 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $77 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $128 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $72 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $36 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $8 $0 +6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $89 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $85 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $112 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $27 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $6 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $13 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $0 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $15 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $1 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $10 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $23 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $34 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $19 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $19 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $25 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.00 (match) · 311 history records