Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:19:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

54 0x54e1…b8cd sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$264 (-14%) realized −$247 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%7W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$120per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$344

7 days−$293

14 days−$293

30 days−$293

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-22.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-14.7%	-22.8%	47%	47%	-23.6%
≤30d	15	-14.7%	-22.8%	47%	47%	-23.6%
≤90d	15	-14.7%	-22.8%	47%	47%	-23.6%
all	15	-14.7%	-22.8%	47%	47%	-23.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.8%	47%	-23.6%
10%	-30.2%	40%	-30.9%
15%	-36.9%	40%	-37.6%
20%	-43.1%	40%	-43.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late -28% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$88 vs −$113 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage

Net worth$173

Realized−$247

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses7 / 8

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage108d

Avg bet$120

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Under	50¢	26¢	$36	$19	−$17 (-47%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$75	+$80	+106%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$77	−$75	-98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$75	+$77	+103%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$75	+$49	+66%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 16	$93	−$93	-100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 16	$123	−$123	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$107	−$107	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$153	−$153	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$189	+$104	+55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$97	−$97	-100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$91	+$19	+21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$97	+$108	+112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$97	−$97	-100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5	Jun 11	$250	+$175	+70%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Jun 11	$292	−$162	-56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	50¢	$37	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	48¢	$75	3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	45¢	$77	5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$152	5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$75	8h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$124	8h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$75	25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	59¢	$123	38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	49¢	$107	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$153	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$293	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	64¢	$93	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$189	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$97	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$110	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	81¢	$91	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$205	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$97	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$97	4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$51	5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5	BUY Over	58¢	$200	5d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY No	1¢	$84	108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY No	1¢	$85	108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL Yes	98¢	$130	108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY Yes	93¢	$123	108d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.70 · official $172.33 (match) · 33 history records