Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x54e1…9d5a other 49 markets active 7h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21,981 (+40%) realized +$10,156 · open +$11,825
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%24W / 17L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1,110per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$19,992now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,637
7 days+$2,650
14 days+$2,650
30 days+$2,650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% +$2,060
other 34% +$15,728
finance 0% −$47
tech 0% −$104
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +89.3% +71.2% 100% 100% +14.6%
≤30d 5 +75.0% +58.3% 100% 100% +14.6%
≤90d 21 +11.0% +0.5% 62% 38% +3.2%
all 41 +0.6% -9.0% 59% 46% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 46% +2.3%
10% -17.7% 27% -7.5%
15% -25.6% 22% -16.4%
20% -32.9% 15% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,149) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
20.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$190 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$19,992
Realized+$10,156
Unrealized+$11,825
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)41 / 49
History coverage344d
Avg bet$1,110
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No 15¢ 94¢ $1,669 $10,429 +$8,760 (+525%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes 17¢ 25¢ $2,297 $3,311 +$1,015 (+44%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 35¢ 52¢ $2,175 $3,236 +$1,061 (+49%)
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes 27¢ 38¢ $1,017 $1,444 +$427 (+42%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 10¢ 35¢ $174 $584 +$409 (+235%)
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $465 $522 +$57 (+12%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $333 $433 +$100 (+30%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $7,483 +$1,633 +22%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 17 $1,227 +$202 +16%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Jun 17 $1,208 +$802 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$13 +252%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? May 06 $3,792 +$2,901 +76%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 May 01 $6 $0 +4%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the Apr 28 $1,264 +$1,350 +107%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Apr 14 $2,310 −$76 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Apr 11 $597 −$306 -51%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 09 $230 −$90 -39%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 07 $1,083 +$87 +8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 04 $921 −$174 -19%
Will Allbirds (BIRD) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 02 $7,504 +$93 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 01 $2,201 −$1,849 -84%
Will Designer Brands Inc (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 27 $35 +$15 +43%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 27 $6,001 +$551 +9%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 25 $48 +$2 +5%
Will PDD Holdings (PDD) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 25 $113 −$1 -1%
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 19 $2,577 $0 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the e Mar 19 $631 +$147 +23%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $40 −$23 -58%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the e Mar 07 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Mar 04 $82 +$37 +45%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Jan 14 $150 −$138 -92%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Jan 14 $350 −$329 -94%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 08 $525 +$108 +21%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 08 $500 +$200 +40%
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 08 $240 +$55 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jan 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 29 $1,149 +$174 +15%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 29 $400 +$62 +16%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 29 $881 +$128 +14%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 19 $200 −$104 -52%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 12 $325 +$454 +140%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 02 $204 +$32 +16%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 31 $200 −$40 -20%
Will Bitcoin hit $107k or $109k first? Jul 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 7h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the BUY Yes 20¢ $302 7h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $1,668 7h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 31¢ $881 7h
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,709 7h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $80 7h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $720 7h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 7h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 34¢ $480 7h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 24¢ $531 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 24¢ $67 8h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $705 8h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 21¢ $577 8h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $47 14h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $280 14h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 14h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 15h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $620 18h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $350 25h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $488 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,992.15 · official $19,992.15 (match) · 1465 history records