Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:42:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54e1…c2c7 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$31 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$107
14 days+$111
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$64
other 23% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +17.5% +6.3% 73% 64% +11.6%
≤30d 12 +17.0% +5.9% 75% 67% +11.0%
≤90d 16 +6.3% -3.8% 62% 56% +3.5%
all 16 +6.3% -3.8% 62% 56% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 56% +3.5%
10% -13.0% 44% -6.4%
15% -21.4% 25% -15.4%
20% -29.1% 12% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage59d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kwon vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 40.5 Under 58¢ 100¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+72%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 11¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-23%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $13 $5 −$8 (-63%)
Quinn vs. Darderi: Match O/U 38.5 Over 59¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gaston vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 29 $30 +$25 +82%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $181 +$47 +26%
Shapovalov vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 29 $10 −$2 -20%
Ruud vs. Hurkacz: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 29 $15 −$15 -99%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND South Africa vs. Canada: Jun 29 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026-06- Jun 28 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$34 +34%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AN Jun 25 $0 +$1 +142%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $32 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Wildcard (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship May 04 $57 −$19 -33%
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Wildcard (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North A May 04 $9 −$7 -81%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Divi May 01 $24 +$3 +13%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $25 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gaston vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 40.5 SELL Under 100¢ $55 29m
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 27¢ $127 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 21¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 15¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 12¢ $80 1h
Shapovalov vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5 SELL Over 49¢ $8 4h
Shapovalov vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 60¢ $9 4h
Gaston vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 40.5 BUY Under 54¢ $15 5h
Kwon vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 40.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 5h
Gaston vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 40.5 BUY Under 54¢ $15 5h
Ruud vs. Hurkacz: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 57¢ $15 5h
Quinn vs. Darderi: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 5h
Shapovalov vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND South Africa vs. Canada: SELL 95¢ $22 19h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance AND South Africa vs. Canada: BUY 64¢ $15 22h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026-06- SELL 89¢ $28 41h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026-06- BUY 62¢ $20 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 88¢ $135 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $101 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2 BUY 34¢ $1 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 41¢ $0 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 61¢ $15 4d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $66 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $50 5d
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 58¢ $22 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 51¢ $20 8d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $8 9d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL No 84¢ $36 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.65 · official $48.65 (match) · 49 history records