Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54dc…b301 crypto 865 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,804 (+7%) realized +$1,804 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%361W / 538L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day84.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$303
7 days+$293
14 days+$1,045
30 days+$1,478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,249
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -19.6% -27.3% 33% 33% -6.4%
≤30d 712 -8.5% -17.2% 39% 39% -3.2%
≤90d 899 -7.0% -15.8% 40% 40% -3.9%
all 899 -7.0% -15.8% 40% 40% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 40% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 39% -13.1%
15% -31.2% 38% -21.5%
20% -38.0% 38% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$23 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,804
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses361 / 538
Open positions0
Markets (closed)899 / 865
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day84.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 899 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records