Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54d8…7ba2 sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$182 (+6%) realized +$304 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%34W / 19L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days+$250
14 days+$369
30 days+$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$440
other 34% −$94
world 3% −$89
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -3.6% -12.8% 60% 60% +2.1%
≤30d 53 +7.8% -2.5% 64% 62% +3.8%
≤90d 53 +7.8% -2.5% 64% 62% +3.8%
all 53 +7.8% -2.5% 64% 62% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 62% +3.8%
10% -11.8% 57% -6.1%
15% -20.3% 49% -15.2%
20% -28.1% 28% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$30 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$304
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses34 / 19
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 60
History coverage13d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $166 $164 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 2¢ $61 $2 −$60 (-98%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 55¢ 4¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-92%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $201 +$83 +41%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $71 +$29 +41%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $76 +$24 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $75 +$25 +33%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $199 +$31 +16%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Will Unite Jun 20 $164 +$79 +48%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $138 +$25 +18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $60 +$40 +67%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $132 +$89 +67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 +$56 +43%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$97 +277%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $119 +$59 +50%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ shots Jun 15 $41 +$18 +44%
Alex Baena: 1+ shots Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$21 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $34 +$16 +45%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $17 +$13 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $103 +$45 +43%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ shots Jun 14 $2 +$8 +354%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $21 +$19 +87%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $24 +$6 +24%
Deniz Gül: 1+ shots Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$39 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots Jun 13 $15 +$18 +122%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 Jun 13 $19 +$21 +108%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $21 +$9 +42%
Edin Džeko: 1+ shots Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Son Heungmin: 1+ shots Jun 12 $34 +$16 +49%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $39 +$21 +54%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots Jun 11 $8 +$2 +22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $40 +$21 +51%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $14 +$6 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $167 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 2h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $132 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $68 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $108 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $71 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $76 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $67 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $8 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $230 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $199 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $42 29h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Will Unite BUY 67¢ $164 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $163 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $138 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $52 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $60 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $6 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $9 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $132 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $56 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $131 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 26¢ $35 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $89 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.56 · official $171.59 · 138 history records