Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
54 0x54d7…9b81 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$958 (+34%) realized +$961 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$565per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$3,761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$677
crypto 14% +$290
sports 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +16.3% +5.2% 100% 100% +5.2%
≤30d 3 +50.9% +36.5% 100% 100% +30.1%
≤90d 3 +50.9% +36.5% 100% 100% +30.1%
all 3 +50.9% +36.5% 100% 100% +30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.5% 100% +30.1%
10% +23.4% 67% +17.7%
15% +11.5% 67% +6.3%
20% +0.6% 67% -4.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$321 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3,761
Realized+$961
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage8d
Avg bet$565
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,004 +$163 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $405 +$290 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $809 +$511 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $502 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,760.61 · official $3,760.61 (match) · 6 history records