Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54d7…c0bf other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$301 (+1%) realized −$83 · open +$384
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -87% what you keep after slip
Net edge-87%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate3%13W / 477L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3,486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$19,773
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-86.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 380 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 393 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 465 -88.3% -89.4% 2% 1% -97.1%
all 490 -85.1% -86.6% 3% 2% -97.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -86.6% 2% -97.1%
10% -87.8% 1% -97.3%
15% -89.0% 1% -97.6%
20% -90.1% 1% -97.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -70% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$84 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$3,486
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$384
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses13 / 477
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions45
Markets (closed)490 / 103
History coverage98d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 490 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,129 $1,129 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 32¢ $32 $266 +$235 (+745%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $52 $248 +$197 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $52 $248 +$197 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $32 $211 +$179 (+568%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $52 $189 +$137 (+265%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $52 $181 +$130 (+251%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $32 $135 +$104 (+329%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $52 $105 +$54 (+104%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $52 $87 +$36 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $32 $84 +$52 (+165%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $52 $66 +$14 (+27%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $32 $54 +$22 (+70%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $52 $46 −$5 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $52 $46 −$6 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $52 $29 −$23 (-44%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $32 $20 −$11 (-36%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $32 $19 −$12 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $52 $18 −$34 (-65%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $52 $14 −$38 (-73%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $32 $12 −$20 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $32 $10 −$21 (-67%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $52 $9 −$43 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 408 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 27 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 27 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 27 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 27 $6 −$33 -529%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 27 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 27 $0 −$30 -7360%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 27 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 27 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 27 $1 −$38 -4904%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,124 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 2h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 31h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,111 4d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 4d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 4d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $206 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $206 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 7d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,485.56 · official $3,485.78 (match) · 703 history records