Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54d5…77d4 sports 895 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$796 (+1%) realized +$767 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%555W / 324L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$330est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$736now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days+$530
14 days+$468
30 days+$476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$497
other 42% +$1,266
crypto 2% −$38
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.7% -13.8% 54% 39% +0.6%
≤30d 169 +0.5% -9.1% 51% 44% -2.0%
≤90d 534 -4.6% -13.6% 60% 39% -9.5%
all 879 -4.2% -13.3% 63% 40% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 40% -8.8%
10% -21.6% 30% -17.5%
15% -29.2% 23% -25.5%
20% -36.1% 17% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$31 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$736
Realized+$767
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses555 / 324
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$330
Open positions7
Markets (closed)879 / 895
History coverage156d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 879 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $322 $330 +$8 (+2%)
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 77¢ $178 $193 +$15 (+9%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 59¢ 68¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+16%)
Will Ghana be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $41 $44 +$3 (+7%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Arge Jun 22 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $62 +$24 +39%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $410 +$31 +8%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $434 +$120 +28%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$10 +98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 20 $5 −$4 -86%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 20 $21 −$20 -99%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $17 +$4 +22%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 +$6 +113%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $5 +$4 +88%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -6%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 19 $21 −$2 -9%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $6 +$8 +127%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 19 $6 −$1 -25%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 19 $3,355 +$317 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -44%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$1 -28%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $8 +$1 +10%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$3 -67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $145 +$7 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 72¢ $36 1h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 72¢ $57 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 69¢ $21 2h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 70¢ $60 2h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Arge SELL 71¢ $31 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $43 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $43 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 5h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $24 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Arge BUY 45¢ $20 11h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $21 11h
Will Ghana be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wo BUY Yes 41¢ $42 11h
Will Portugal finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY No 59¢ $40 12h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $103 12h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $57 12h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $441 12h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $222 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 12¢ $5 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $8 26h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 29h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $56 29h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 29h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $224 40h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $554 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $434 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $735.60 · official $740.60 (match) · 3256 history records