Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x54ca…28ff crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$59 (-51%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$22
sports 31% +$19
culture 24% −$22
other 10% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +38.0% +24.9% 50% 50% +67.6%
≤30d 4 -31.0% -37.6% 25% 25% +18.0%
≤90d 4 -31.0% -37.6% 25% 25% +18.0%
all 13 -32.4% -38.8% 38% 31% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 31% -37.9%
10% -44.7% 23% -43.8%
15% -50.0% 15% -49.3%
20% -54.9% 15% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage234d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $10 +$18 +176%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Feb 26 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 26 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 25 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 06 $28 −$22 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $28 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 35¢ $5 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 36¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 14d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 124d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 4¢ $26 124d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 205d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 213d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 216d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 231d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 234d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records