Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54c6…893d crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+25%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$8
sports 11% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 50% -4.4%
≤30d 10 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 50% -4.4%
≤90d 10 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 50% -4.4%
all 10 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 50% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 50% -4.4%
10% -12.5% 50% -13.5%
15% -21.0% 40% -21.9%
20% -28.7% 30% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$31 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$10 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$15 -42%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $19 +$12 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records