Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
54 0x54c4…caae crypto 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,324 (+7%) realized +$2,146 · open +$839
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%103W / 78L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,382
7 days+$1,186
14 days+$2,146
30 days+$2,146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$1,043
sports 43% +$2,448
other 13% −$506
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 +0.6% -9.0% 55% 55% -5.9%
≤30d 181 +2.7% -7.1% 57% 57% -3.6%
≤90d 181 +2.7% -7.1% 57% 57% -3.6%
all 181 +2.7% -7.1% 57% 57% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 57% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 57% -12.8%
15% -24.1% 56% -21.2%
20% -31.6% 49% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$175 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,499
Realized+$2,146
Unrealized+$839
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses103 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage10d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 100¢ $660 $1,499 +$839 (+127%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $506 +$301 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 15 $305 −$305 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 15 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $398 −$398 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 15 $406 −$406 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $306 −$306 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 15 $168 −$168 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $306 −$306 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $822 −$822 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,174 −$1,174 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,519 −$1,519 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $726 −$726 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,626 +$1,929 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$64 +63%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $304 +$213 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$81 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$45 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $303 +$158 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$68 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$79 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$93 +90%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,165 +$888 +76%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $609 +$555 +91%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $671 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $506 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1,626 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,499.25 · official $1,499.25 (match) · 439 history records