Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54c3…11c6 crypto 54 markets active 5d ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+3%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate87%39W / 6L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% +$25
crypto 12% $0
other 11% $0
sports 4% +$5
tech 3% −$1
weather 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 21 -4.1% -13.2% 95% 0% -5.8%
all 45 -0.8% -10.3% 87% 2% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -6.9%
10% -18.9% 2% -15.8%
15% -26.7% 2% -23.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.86 per $1 lost it wins $28.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses39 / 6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)45 / 54
History coverage598d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will App A be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 20? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $147 +$9 +6%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 30? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 30? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $189 +$16 +8%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Jan 30 $1 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kick Sauber have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mex Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Haas have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Gr Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $102K on September 5? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,500 and $113,000 on Septembe Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4000 on September 5 at 4PM ET Oct 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 1–7? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $113,000 on September 6 at 1 Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $98K on September 8? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 September 1–7? Oct 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 03 $13 +$5 +36%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? Aug 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Aug 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? Aug 31 $60 $0 +0%
Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Apr 11 $103 +$1 +1%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Dec 13 $103 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Nov 27 $103 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Oct 22 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY No 100¢ $4 5d
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Patrick Bailey win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? BUY No 99¢ $7 5d
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will App A be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 5d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 57d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $10 57d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $4 57d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $10 57d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $4 57d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $3 57d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $10 57d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $3 57d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.82 · official $58.82 (match) · 363 history records