trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -21.5% | -29.0% | 50% | 50% | -23.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -21.5% | -29.0% | 50% | 50% | -23.0% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -21.5% | -29.0% | 50% | 50% | -23.0% |
| all | 10 | -38.0% | -43.9% | 20% | 20% | +3.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -43.9% | 20% | +3.2% |
| 10% | -49.3% | 20% | -6.7% |
| 15% | -54.2% | 20% | -15.7% |
| 20% | -58.7% | 20% | -23.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 76¢ | 76¢ | $54 | $53 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $34 | +$20 | +57% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $30 | −$29 | -98% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 12 | $33 | −$4 | -12% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 12 | $174 | −$8 | -5% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Jan 08 | $366 | −$96 | -26% |
| MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? | Dec 10 | $464 | −$269 | -58% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $1,000 | +$730 | +73% |
| 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Jul 09 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2024 meeting? | Jun 14 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Luka Doncic 50+ points in a NBA Finals game? | Jun 14 | $24 | −$16 | -68% |