Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54c0…eafc world 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,273 (+4%) realized +$1,990 · open −$717
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate53%81W / 72L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$731now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$452
7 days+$429
14 days+$1,237
30 days+$950
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$684
crypto 9% +$896
other 9% −$132
sports 5% +$401
politics 4% +$135
economics 3% +$30
tech 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -17.5% -25.3% 33% 17% +132.7%
≤30d 17 +8.0% -2.3% 47% 41% +13.3%
≤90d 99 +2.7% -7.1% 47% 30% -4.3%
all 153 +3.2% -6.6% 53% 25% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 25% -4.9%
10% -15.6% 16% -14.0%
15% -23.7% 13% -22.3%
20% -31.2% 9% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$47 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$731
Realized+$1,990
Unrealized−$717
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses81 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions11
Markets (closed)153 / 164
History coverage103d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $269 $315 +$46 (+17%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $160 $161 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 25¢ 36¢ $63 $91 +$28 (+44%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 36¢ $51 $32 −$19 (-38%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+32%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 17¢ 14¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 12¢ $125 $19 −$106 (-85%)
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? No 35¢ $150 $16 −$134 (-89%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+20%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 11¢ $188 $3 −$185 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ $305 $0 −$305 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $178 +$523 +293%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $197 −$10 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1,858 +$817 +44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $44 +$7 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $142 +$77 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $568 −$224 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $18 −$12 -67%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $117 +$16 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 22 $17 +$56 +326%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $414 −$275 -66%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 20 $110 +$71 +64%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $45 −$45 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $57 −$49 -86%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $192 −$175 -91%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $85 −$23 -27%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $79 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $1,442 −$572 -40%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $419 −$36 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 11 $223 +$25 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $83 +$69 +83%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 06 $1,578 +$34 +2%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? May 01 $35 −$31 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $449 +$53 +12%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 01 $339 −$50 -15%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $3,096 −$336 -11%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $197 −$47 -24%
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 29 $253 +$10 +4%
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 29 $505 +$20 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 28 $255 +$238 +93%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $86 −$86 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $19 +$1 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 23 $38 +$8 +21%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 22 $112 +$43 +39%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $193 −$101 -52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $36 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $719 −$396 -55%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 20 $98 +$31 +31%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $1,306 +$390 +30%
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Apr 17 $67 +$6 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $177 +$8 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 17 $520 +$73 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $308 −$8 -3%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $141 −$128 -91%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $649 +$1,370 +211%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 58m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $59 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 84¢ $225 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $731.19 · official $731.24 (match) · 1893 history records