Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54c0…0774 crypto 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$329 (-7%) realized −$329 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%164W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day57.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$327
other 5% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -4.0% -13.2% 58% 58% -18.1%
≤30d 287 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 56% -17.2%
≤90d 287 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 56% -17.2%
all 287 -4.7% -13.8% 57% 56% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 56% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 52% -25.1%
15% -29.6% 36% -32.3%
20% -36.5% 21% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$329
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses164 / 123
Open positions0
Markets (closed)287 / 287
History coverage30d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 287 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$14 +156%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$3 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$6 -20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$11 -29%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$34 -90%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +49%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$1 -16%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$3 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$7 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$4 +27%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$7 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$11 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$4 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -8%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$7 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$6 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $22 +$6 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $23 +$6 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$16 +84%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $70 −$19 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1995 history records