Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54bb…5787 sports 353 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-4%) realized −$13 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%116W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$124
14 days+$110
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$23
world 11% −$90
other 5% −$8
politics 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$9
economics 1% −$3
tech 0% −$4
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +22.5% +10.9% 44% 44% +4.9%
≤30d 162 +16.0% +4.9% 41% 41% +1.7%
≤90d 318 -8.6% -17.3% 35% 35% -12.8%
all 336 -9.7% -18.3% 35% 35% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 35% -14.2%
10% -26.1% 34% -22.4%
15% -33.2% 33% -29.9%
20% -39.8% 33% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses116 / 220
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions17
Markets (closed)336 / 353
History coverage109d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 25¢ 23¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes 33¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 20¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $24 +$22 +91%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$24 +474%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 +$12 +102%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 +$12 +152%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $3 +$14 +442%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$6 +303%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7 +$6 +82%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +335%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 +$2 +178%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $11 +$6 +53%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$5 +177%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +125%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$3 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $3 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $3 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $8 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $6 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $2 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $3 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.51 · official $13.51 (match) · 776 history records